Highland Acres, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

764
FXUS61 KPHI 272217
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
617 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley through tonight into
Wednesday, while a new low develops near the eastern Carolinas
tonight. This new low then gradually tracks northward during
Wednesday then out to sea late Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold
front crosses our area later Thursday, then it may stall across
Delmarva Friday as low pressure tracks along it. The next cold front
crosses our area later Saturday into Sunday. High pressure will then
arrive for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
615 PM...As of early this evening, low pressure was centered
near Kentucky with surface ridging still holding on across the
Great Lakes extending south and east through the mid Atlantic
region. There is a slug of rain associated with the warm
advection pattern north and east of the low and radar
reflectivity indicates returns showing over Maryland into
Delaware. We`ve had some rain being reported over Kent Island on
the eastern MD shore but it would appear the leading edge of
these returns is still mainly virga as cloud bases remain quite
high. This is due to the low level dry air in place associated
with the surface ridging.

Even as we get into this evening, rain should struggle to make
inroads into our County Warning area though we did raise the POPs a
bit compared to the mid afternoon update. As we get towards the
predawn hours that`s when the rain should begin to get heavier and
steadier over Delmarva. By the time of the morning commute Thursday
(7-9am, it will be raining over Delmarva with the rain also
spreading into Philly and adjacent NJ suburbs. The cloud cover will
keep it warmer tonight compared to this morning with lows mainly in
the 50s.

As we get into the day Wednesday, rain will continue to overspread
the area SW to NE eventually getting into northern NJ by the
afternoon. This will end up being pretty much an "all day rain"
event once the rain moves in as an initial area low pressure slowly
advances north towards Ohio while a secondary low starts to develop
near Delmarva by early tomorrow evening. In addition to the rain,
there will be a raw east wind and this will help keep temperatures
from rising much compared to their early morning lows. Generally
expect upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Rain may fall moderate to
occasionally on the heavy side but generally speaking this is more
of a stratiform event so flash flooding won`t be a threat and the
storm totals are not expected to be enough to result in river
flooding. Still can`t rule out, however, some nuisance urban and
poor drainage type minor flooding.

For Wednesday night, the double Barreled system will continue
to bring rain through the evening before it eventually starts to
taper off SW to NE overnight as the primary low lifts into the
lower Great Lakes while the secondary low moves off the coast of
NJ. Expect total rain amounts by this time to generally range
from around a half inch in our northern zones to around 1 to
1.25 inches over SE PA and adjacent areas of NJ. Over far
southern NJ near Cape May as well as over Delmarva, upwards of
1.5 to 1.75 inches of rain will be possible. But again, this
will be over a period of 24+ hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough is forecast to be across much of eastern
Canada, southwestward across the Great Lakes and into the
Mississippi Valley. A leading strong shortwave trough should be
pivoting by the eastern Great Lakes Thursday, which will eventually
pull a cold front across our area later Thursday or Thursday night.
This feature will support low pressure which tracks well to our
north, however there will be low pressure near the northern Mid-
Atlantic coast that will also be moving away during Thursday. As a
result, while the shower chances are lower there will still be some
around with even an afternoon thunderstorm possible Thursday. As the
marine influence is lost Thursday, and some sunshine should return
the temperatures will recover with many places getting into the 70s.
A few showers or a thunderstorm may still continue Thursday night as
the cold front works through but starts to slow.

As we go through Friday, the aforementioned cold front may tend to
stall across Delmarva as additional energy amplifies to our west.
This energy associated with an amplifying upper-level trough looks
to result in a wave of low pressure developing along the tailend of
the stalled front. The strength of this feature will determine how
much precipitation we see, however an increase in shower and perhaps
some thunder should occur as we go through the day Friday and
especially Friday night. There remains some uncertainty with this
given some questions on how strong and organized this system will
be. If the showers/rain hold off long enough, then high temperatures
could get a little warmer than currently forecast. Timing-wise, as
of now, it looks like any organized area of showers/rain looks to
arrive Friday evening and the PoPs reflect this with some increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summary...High temperatures below average for the weekend then some
warming is forecast during early next week. Some lingering chances
for some showers/thunder into the weekend.

Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify
across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Saturday, Sunday and into
Monday. The trough should then lift out into Tuesday as a building
mid level ridge starts to arrive from the west. At the surface, a
cold front arrives later Saturday into Sunday followed by high
pressure for Monday and Tuesday.

For Saturday and Sunday...An upper-level trough is forecast to pivot
across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. The model
guidance is in decent agreement, although there are still some
differences regarding the amplitude of it. At the surface, a cold
front arrives later Saturday, and while the air mass should be
turning drier due to the passage of an earlier system, lingering
moisture should be sufficient enough to allow for the chance of some
showers and also a few afternoon thunderstorms possible. The
intensity and coverage of convection will depend on the amplitude of
the trough and associated forcing for ascent along with available
instability ahead of the cold front. High temperatures look to be in
the low to mid 70s for most areas. A similar setup for Sunday given
the presence of the upper-level trough, although shower chances look
to be lower than Saturday for most it not all of the area. It may
also turn breezy for a time especially on Saturday in the wake of a
departing system.

For Monday and Tuesday...The upper-level trough may linger Monday as
its axis crosses our area. This should end the shower chances for
our area and also start a warm-up through Tuesday. As the trough
aloft lifts out with time and a mid level ridge building to our west
starts to arrive, Tuesday could be several degrees warmer than
Tuesday with some areas getting into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR for most, if not all of the night as rain and
associated restrictions likely hold off until during the day
Wednesday. Cloud bases lowering to below 10 k ft overnight. Winds
generally south to SE this evening backing to easterly around 5-8
knots by morning. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...Rain moving in through the morning with cigs lower to
MVFR and then to IFR at times by afternoon as the rain
continues. East winds around 10 knots with some gusts to 15-20
knots by afternoon. High confidence on overall trend with
moderate confidence on timing details.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Rain continues along with restrictions that will
likely be IFR by this time. East winds around 10 knots in the
evening shifting to northeast 5-10 knots overnight.

Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions should improve to VFR. Some showers
possible.

Friday and Saturday...A period of sub-VFR conditions with some
showers. Westerly winds Saturday could gust to around 20 knots.

Sunday...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through
tonight with Small Craft Advisory conditions then developing over
the waters from south to north through Wednesday as rain moves in.
By late day Wednesday east winds will generally be around 15 to 20
gusting 25 to 30 knots. Seas ramping up to 3-6 feet by late day.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...The winds start to diminish however seas build
to 5 to 7 feet so the Small Craft Advisory continues over our
ocean zones.

Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions on the ocean zones mainly
due to lingering seas at or above 5 feet.

Friday through Sunday...The conditions are anticipated to be
mostly below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

There is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and
life threatening rip currents on both Wednesday and Thursday for
the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches. On Wednesday, east
winds will average 15 to 20 mph along with breaking waves of 2
to 4 feet and a 5-7 period swell. On Thursday, winds become
south around 10 mph with breaking waves around 3 feet and a 7 to
9 period swell. A HIGH risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents is possible on Thursday, but confidence is low and for
now will keep the risk as MODERATE.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some spotty minor tidal flooding remains possible for the
overnight high tide cycles for the next few days. However, not
expecting any further advisories at this time as we get away
from the new moon and astronomical tides decrease.

For the Chesapeake Bay, no tidal flooding is expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ451-452.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ453>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Gorse
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Hoeflich/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...